← Grand Archive DTR KL Regionals 2025
Water AlliesTier 2
at Grand Archive DTR KL Regionals 2025
decks
7
(2.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
63
27-27-9
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.6%
avg ELO -1.2 per match
expected value
47.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1252
· median 1315
· range 1058–1401
(7 pilots with an ELO rating)
941
Q1 1203
Q3 1403
1633
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
43% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 33.3% | 21 | 9-9-3 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -0.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.9% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 39.2% | -6.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 29.7% | -19.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.8% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 24.7% | -18.9 |
| Fire Suited | 5.6% | 8 | 5-2-1 | 68.8% | 62.5% | 59.0% | +4.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.2% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 54.0% | +2.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.2% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.6% | +2.1 |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.2% | -8.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Water Genbu | 4.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.7% | +11.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.2 |
| Water Fractal | 3.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.4 |
| Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.9% | +8.5 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Fire Allen | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.6 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
The 7 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
